Independent of the outcome of the Copenhagen conference, the long-term challenge of safe energy is as important as ever. Furthermore, setting aside all scientific arguments, continued investment in the field of energy efficiency is crucial. High oil prices are a blessing, not a curse, in that they encourage investment in alternative energy sources that emit less CO2 and that are more sustainable over the long term. Energy prices have increased substantially since 2004, giving a significant boost to solar energy, offshore wind energy and geothermal energy. Not surprisingly, the countries turning to alternative energy sources and energy efficiency are economically prosperous. Two examples include Denmark and Germany, Which have both embraced the development of new technologies with open arms, offering huge subsidies for this purpose. These subsidies are still necessary for the time being, even though several forms of alternative energy are currently economically competitive.

As indicated above, there is no better long-term incentive than high oil prices to promote the development of sustainable alternatives to fossil fuels. By 2024, the world's population is expected to top 8 billion. The populations of the emerging countries are growing wealthier, meaning that their demand for energy is bound to increase. The forecasted growth of global oil demand (from 84 million barrels per day to 104 million) can be attributed entirely to the emerging markets, more specifically to China and India. By 2030, the number of cars and trucks in circulation is expected to double. For the first time, sales of cars in China have exceeded sales in the US! As for reserves, many oil fields are rapidly running dry. Of the 400 biggest oil fields, 300 have been operational since the 1970s. In Norway, which was the world’s No. 11 oil producer in 2008, production reached its peak in 2001, after which it dropped off by 27%.  Another major producer, oil company PdVSA (owned by the Venezuelan government), has – according to the Energy Information Administration – seen its annual production fall by over 25% in some fields. As a result, we predict oil prices will remain relatively high in the future.

Although we favour a balanced combination of alternative energies and energy efficiency, the different forms of alternative energy will be unable, in the short and medium terms, to meet the constantly rising energy demand and fully replace fossil fuels. At present, 2.6% of electricity is generated by alternative energies such as solar and wind energy, and we believe this percentage could climb to 5% by 2020. In the meantime, we think that natural gas, which emits four times less CO2 than coal, will play a role in the transition towards a less carbon-consuming economy.

But what impact do all these energy challenges have on investments? Investors can take advantage of these growing challenges through two types of fund: those investing in clean technologies and those investing in traditional energy. For investors interested in investing in new clean technologies, it is important to factor in not only a company's outlook and financial evaluations, but also developments and changes in terms of technology and environmental regulations.